## Bayes Primer

Posted on Sat 17 October 2015 in ml • Tagged with tutorial, bayesian

# What is Bayes Theorem?¶

Bayes theorem is what allows us to go from a **sampling (or likelihood) distribution** and a **prior distribution** to a **posterior distribution**.

## What is a Sampling Distribution?¶

A sampling distribution is the probability of seeing **our data (X)** given our **parameters ($\theta$).** This is written as $p(X|\theta)$.

For example, we might have data on 1,000 coin flips. Where 1 indicates a head. This can be represented in python as

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